Full card of Matrix Bets

[lakerfan]

Picks

Matrix Reload Open Day OVER 28.54M @ WWTS (3 units)
-250
750 to win 300

Matrix Reload 3 day weekend UNDER 100M @ WWTS (2 units)
-150
300 to win 150

Ties up money until November
Matrix Reload -5M OVER Matrix Revolutions @ WWTS (3 units)
-130
390 to win 300

Strong lean.

Matrix 3 Day weekend under 84.9M @ BODOG
+1500
I am not posting this as an official pick only because I try to post VERY high percentage winners. I consider this bet the strongest value of all of them. No less than 33% that this comes in. Also if you want a shot at it with a hedge, there is no way Matrix does under 28.54M on Thursday and goes on to make over 85M for the 3 day weekend. So the first bet I posted hedges against this, but both could both cash.


All the best - lakerfan

 

[winkyduck]

for those new to the site - when lakerfan posts a movie pick - PLAY IT! he knows his stuff and when he loses a pick it is front page news because it happens very rarely!

 

[jcambert]

I have a couple of questions for Lakerfan, who's opinion I greatly respect (among others on this board). First off, I had already bet the UNDER 96 mil at WWTS at -105. Don't you think that there's slightly better value in that, as opposed to laying -140 for 4 million more dollars? Just wondering. Also, how is the studio going to calculate the opening day number of 28.54 mil? This film is opening all over the country (in 2,000 plus theaters), tonight, not tomorrow. Are they going to use BOTH day's numbers? Are they only going to use tomorrow's numbers? Only today's numbers? Any thoughts?

And, what resource does WWTS use to grade these wagers? In other words, who's numbers are they using?

JP

 

[lakerfan]

Thanks Winky.

jcambert - I bet the under at 96M as well. But I like the extra 4M because I think 100M is the high range it could do so I don't mind paying the extra juice since I can win even if Matrix goes into the high range of my estimates. I personally bet both for the max.

I don't know what site they use for numbers, but they will use studio/exhibitor reported actuals I am sure.

Tonights 10PM showings are being counted as sneaks and will count toward Thursday actual total.

 

[jcambert]

What do you think about the UNDER 135 mil for the four day weekend over at WSEX? I think that's a very strong bet. I have already played that one also.

JP

 

[SonofaGun]

lakerfan, I'm hearing they're going to count Wednesday's night showings as Thursday's gross. If this is the case, isn't it highly likely that the number will go over the current lines for 3day and 4day?

 

[Oren1]

I was thinking that of course the 12 a.m. showing would be tallied with the Thursday total, but they can't count the 10 pm showings, can they?

 

[SonofaGun]

Oren, they can if they want to break some records. Of course that's cheating.

 

[Oren1]

I'm thinking over 28 is a sure bet regardless. ...Damn, too late.

 

[jcambert]

I believe that they are counting the Wednesday screenings as sneak previews, thereby allowing them to count them for Thursday's totals.

JP

 

[SonofaGun]

the under is not so sure for the 3 day and 4 day anymore. Counting wednesday night's grosse is several, several million imo. Where I live, almost all night showings are ~80% full or sold out.

 

[Oren1]

jeez, since when does naming a movie a "sneek preview" transport the audience 24 hours into the future... I hope this doesn't f*ck over our under wagers.

 

[sphincter]

gl laker.....rootin` for ya`.....

 

[lakerfan]

Thanks sphincter. You know when I have any OLY picks I will be sending them your way.

 

[sphincter]

it pays to have friends in "high" places

.....thanks,bud

 

[lakerfan]

Looks like a decent weekend. Matrix had a huge opening day and very good opening weekend. The lean didn't win, but I would make the same bet again.

Results of official picks: 2-0 (one bet outstanding) +5 units

Updated record: 20-2 (+35.05 units)

 

[SoundofSilence]

Damn... Very impressive lakerfan. Thanks for all your insight.

 

[SonofaGun]

once again, you are the man for box office props. Congrats lakerfan, job well done and appreciated.